US equites stumbled into the weekend on Friday. The S&P fell 0.3% as did the equal-weight, but the Russell 2000 got hit for 1.4%. Yields played a role as the 2y jumped over 10bp and the long-end rose as well after markets digested Fed chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

That brings us to today, the last day of August. We’ve seen some significant market events and sharp moves during recent month-ends, including July’s Situational Awareness fund blow up. We don’t’ see anything like that on the tape for this month-end, but over the weekend the US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since July. The US struck rocket launchers on Larak Island, which could be used to fire mines into the Strait, after the US had just declared it mine-free. Iran responded by launching missiles at US bases in Jordan which were intercepted. President Trump also posted AI-generated videos of Kharg Island being “blown to smithereens”. We still prefer the MAC Desk memes. The return of kinetic activity kicked oil higher and the S&P opened down 0.2%, which has marked its high of the day. We’re currently down 0.4%, with every sector except for Energy (and Tech, barely) lower. The equal-weight is lagging slightly, followed by small caps (R2K -1%). For the month the S&P is currently up ~3%, outpacing both the equal-weight and Russell 2000. The NYSE 100 is up 5% as large caps held up- especially Software.

Oil is trading ~3% higher on the renewed Iranian hostilities. Brent is currently up ~7% in August and 50% this year. Yields were around unchanged even as oil rose, but the long-end began to back up as we approached the open. 10 and 30y yields are up 4-5bp while the 2y is down slightly after Friday’s >10bp jump. The 10y has set new YTD high as it hit 4.75%. The 30y remains below its high but is marching back towards it. It’s not just the US.