Two significant developments regarding Israeli settlers have unfolded in recent days.
The U.S. imposed sanctions on the Amana organization, a cornerstone of the settlement movement, and Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the cessation of administrative detention orders, or detention without trial, against Jewish settlers in the West Bank.
These decisions highlight a critical turning point in the relationship between settlers, the Israeli government, Palestinians and the international community. As the West adopts a stricter stance against the settlement enterprise, a potential shift in the global order looms under the leadership of President-elect Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Israel is governed by its most right-wing and pro-settlement administration to date.
Katz's announcement aligns with the far-right's campaign to oppose the controversial detentions of Jewish settlers without trial, a political cause that has gained traction since the current government came into power. The decision's legality is questionable, as Katz explicitly said it applies solely to Jews. This suggests that administrative detention orders against Arab citizens of Israel will persist.
In September, the most recent month for which the Israel Prison Service released data, around 40 Arab citizens and seven Jewish individuals were held under administrative detention. The number of Palestinians from the West Bank held without trial peaked during the war, and today, approximately 3,400 remain imprisoned in Israel.
Detention orders for Palestinians are signed by the IDF Central Command chief, not the defense minister, and are routinely approved by military courts. In contrast, each administrative detention order issued against a Jewish detainee sparks public outrage and headlines.
The settlers are correct in their claim that recently, administrative detention orders have been used slightly more frequently against Jews. This increase largely reflects the Shin Bet security service's attempt to compensate for the police's inadequacy in addressing the surge in nationalist violence since October 7.
The Judea and Samaria District Police have historically never really stood up to the challenge, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his allies have only worsened the situation. As reported by Haaretz, Avishai Mualem, head of the Central Unit of the Judea and Samaria District, downplays the severity of the problem, and there is a disconnect between the police and the Shin Bet's Jewish Division.
Eli Bahar, former legal advisor to the Shin Bet, views Katz's announcement as evidence of poor judgment, an attempt by the government to divert attention from critical issues, and another phase in Israel's democratic decline.
"[Katz's] statement corrborates claims that Israel doesn't enforce the law against settler violence, and makes it formal," Bahar told Haaretz. "First, they weaken and undermine the police, and then they target an agency still working to prevent attacks by Jews."
Bahar fears Katz might assure the court that each case of proposed administrative detention order will be examined individually, but will still act according to the discriminatory policies. He also pointed out that the International Criminal Court is currently investigating Israeli conduct in the West Bank. "If someone in the government is looking to add another criminal charge at The Hague," he said, "this is the surest way to achieve it."
The lack of legal accountability in the West Bank is also at the heart of the sanctions increasingly imposed by different countries on settlers. The most severe among these are the ones imposed by the Biden administration on Amana, the main organization promoting West Bank settlements and outposts and, in many ways, an integral part of the Israeli establishment.
Ze'ev "Zambish" Hever, the secretary-general of Amana, has been a prominent figure in Israeli politics for decades and is known to be a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The strong bonds between the Israeli establishment and Amana has raised concerns among international players that the U.S. sanctions might provoke retaliatory actions from Israel. Katz explicitly presented his decision as a direct response to these sanctions.
Foreign diplomats are increasingly worried that Israel's next actions might focus on the Palestinian Authority. Several potential flashpoints are already in place for possible escalation. For example, Israeli banks need formal approval from the finance minister to continue ties with Palestinian banks without facing allegations of aiding terrorism. Recently, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich extended this approval for just one month, showcasing one of the leverage points he holds over the Palestinians.
Such measures may ultimately prove unnecessary. The anticipated change of administration in the White House raises the possibility that the days of U.S. sanctions against settlers are numbered. Just last week, Israel's Ministerial Committee for Legislation postponed discussions on a bill aimed at compelling banks to bypass American sanctions on settlers to January, seemingly in the hope that Trump will address the issue by then.
Some in Israel are optimistic that a shift in U.S. policy could influence other countries as well, potentially halting the snowball effect that began with sanctions targeting individual settlers responsible for terrorizing Palestinians. This momentum, they fear, could eventually extend to heads of Israeli councils in the West Bank and even ministers.
If the morning after the U.S. elections brought a sigh of relief to settler leaders, the subsequent announcement of key appointments seemed to fill them with uncontainable joy. Yossi Dagan, head of the Samaria Regional Council, had cultivated strong ties with American right-wing figures, hosting them on highly publicized visits to the West Bank and treating them like royalty. Among these visitors were Mike Huckabee, Trump's nominee for U.S. ambassador to Israel, and Pete Hegseth, slated to serve as Trump's defense secretary.
In Israel, official settlement-related matters are now almost completely in settlers' hands. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, entrusted with sweeping powers by Prime Minister Netanyahu, wields significant influence over the daily lives of both settlers and Palestinians. Smotrich has appointed his close ally, Yehuda Eliyahu, to lead the newly formed Settlement Administration. Furthermore, Hillel Roth, a settler, who is not a military man, has been named deputy head of the Civil Administration – a stark indication of de facto annexation and the transfer of powers from the military to a civil authority.
One of the key responsibilities assigned to Roth is oversight of planning and construction, a critical issue for settlers. Although the Civil Administration has historically been lax in enforcing the removal of illegal Israeli construction, even previously low-profile evacuations now trigger intense controversy and political pressure. This heightened scrutiny further drains the energy of enforcement officials, who are already operating with limited motivation.
The past two years have indeed seen an increase in building permits, fewer demolitions and a stronger foothold on illegal land by settlers, but they still have more ambitious goals.
The holy grail for many settlers is annexation, but it's not the only goal. Recently, one of the settler leaders outlined several initiatives that, he claims, have been blocked by the current U.S. administration: holding more frequent meetings of the Supreme Planning Council, the body that grants building permits; additional declarations of state lands (even though 2024 is already a record year in this regard); an even more aggressive use of force by the Israeli army, despite over 700 Palestinian casualties and the army having resumed airstrikes over the past year; and additional restrictions on Palestinian transportation and mobility.
Another concern for settler leaders is the growing international pressure regarding settler violence, a phenomenon they prefer to deny. It is probable that the detention of more Jewish settlers without trial was used as a proof by the government that it was doing something about the issue, but now it seems that things are changing. After settlers tightened their grip over Israeli institutions, they now expect changes in the United States, and for the Israeli Defense Ministry to forgo the few remaining restraints.
