Over the past two weeks, a panic has been spreading in the democratic camp. Its origin is not only the fast approach of Election Day, which, for a long time, was kept in mind as a precious lifeline.
The cause for concern is mainly the latest polls pointing to a tie between the two blocs – considering the racist construction that excludes the Arab parties. The tie largely stems from the fact that in some of the latest polls, three small right-wing parties are managing to pass the electoral threshold, two of them overtly aligned with the coalition bloc.
The first and strongest of these is Religious Zionism, which for quite a few months, along with Bezalel Smotrich, had been looking at the electoral threshold from down below. After the merger with fringe far-right figure Moshe Feiglin, the far-right party began enjoying stronger momentum and currently seems protected from falling beneath the electoral threshold.
Feiglin, it turns out, is not (only) a hero to delusional and lost souls plagued with conspiratorial thoughts, but also a young person's torchbearer for population transfer. Next to him, Smotrich, who on Monday announced he would abolish democracy with a plan bearing the name of the anti-democratic Polish party ("Law and Justice"), seems almost humane and normal.
The rise of the party, which on Monday released a barbaric AI-generated video showing the violent arrest of Supreme Court President Isaac Amit and Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, echoes a trend within the coalition bloc. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party has weakened slightly, but the right wing that advocates for ethnic cleansing and the elimination of democracy is growing stronger.
Right-wing hardliner Ofer Winter, in contrast, appears much more vulnerable. Winter has not yet solidified his position above the electoral threshold, and the Likud messaging indicates that Netanyahu is starting to target him, frantically branding him as a vote-waster. It is possible that Netanyahu will change his strategy later, but for now Winter is emerging as the black sheep of the Kahanist-Bib-ist bloc.
The strange alliance between Yoaz Hendel, former accountant general Yaron Zelekha and Einat Wilf, which also, apparently, receives most of its votes in polls from coalition bloc voters, still looks like a casino, but it is too early to dismiss it with contempt. It also takes votes from the so-called third bloc, which is still a somewhat significant electoral reservoir, and according to a source familiar with the party's polls, Zelekha brings "many votes from the depths of Bibi-ism."
It is unclear how Netanyahu will choose to position himself, if at all, against this phenomenon, and moreover, it is not entirely clear how this party will act in light of the projections in the latest polls. If it passes the electoral threshold, one cannot rule out a split: While Hendel will not complete the necessary 61 seats for Netanyahu, it is likely that Zelekha, determined to be finance minister, will go with whoever offers him a more senior position.
Senior figures in the so-called bloc of change, opposed to Netanyahu, believe that the current polls require reexamination after the holidays. "Currently, we're hyped about the slates being handed in," one says. "It's hard to believe that the three small right-wing parties will pass, and if one falls, let alone two, we'll find ourselves in a completely different situation."
Naftali Bennett's associates accuse Gadi Eisenkot of shrinking the bloc ever since he replaced him as its leader. They cite polls from around the time of the announcement that Bennett and Yair Lapid's parties would merge, which projected that a bloc led by Bennett stood at 59-60. Eisenkot's camp argues that these polls were from before Winter and Hendel announced their parties, which nonetheless took a certain, albeit small, percentage of voters from the opposition camp.
This may be the case, but it should be noted that the strengthening of the coalition bloc is fueled not only by the timing and momentum of the new slates, but also by the issues on the agenda. Horrifyingly, October 7 is not an issue that weakens Netanyahu among his base, and the judicial overhaul actually strengthens him (there's nothing like low-brow populist incitement against "the elites"). The ultra-Orthodox draft evasion, which damages his popularity in the base, has been almost absent from the discourse in recent weeks.
In any case, these are disturbing figures. If they remain relevant after the holidays, they will indeed be the stuff of nightmares.
