Carney's electoral Trump card is falling flat in B.C., Quebec elections

OTTAWA — When British Columbia Premier David Eby took the risky step last week of calling an election with almost exactly half of his mandate left, he didn’t seem too clear why he was doing so.

But there was no doubt who he wanted to run against.

With the opposition conservatives in disarray, Eby never mentioned the new interim B.C. Conservative leader in his Sept. 22 campaign-opening speech. But he referenced U.S. President Donald Trump at least 20 times, saying it was an “existential moment” and that the New Democratic government would erect a “firebreak” against the American threat.

Less than a month earlier, Québec Premier Christine Fréchette opened her campaign by making it clear that she wanted Trump on the ballot too. Fréchette called the unpopular U.S. leader “her main opponent.”

In both cases, the two premiers seemed to be following the path created by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who won big in the 2025 federal election because he presented himself as the best defender of Canadian interests against Trump’s threats to the country’s economy and sovereignty.

And in both provincial cases, the plan, at least so far, has failed.

“(Voters are) not looking for a rhetorical opposition to Trump,” said Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia.

That view is backed up by the polls. Both Eby and Fréchette’s numbers have plunged and are now at risk of being tossed out of office.

So what happened to playing the Trump card? Has that move lost its potency for incumbents in Canadian politics?

Or is there something unique to Carney — or his job as prime minister — that makes it work?

Analysts say voters seem to have made a distinction in this case that international trade and dealing with Washington are not the provinces’ jobs, so they’re not buying the effort to play the Trump card.

In Eby’s case, they say it was a gross miscalculation to call the election early and to emphasize the province’s need to stand up to Trump, instead of waiting to hold the vote and then focusing on more traditional provincial matters such as health care, education and B.C.’s economic development. The province’s large deficit under Eby is expected to be an election issue at either time, analysts say.

Prest said Eby’s effort to link the election call to Trump might have worked if the Conservatives hadn’t switched leaders just a couple of days earlier.

The previous leader, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, resigned Sept. 20 following a caucus revolt and other internal strife. The former federal MP was seen as more sympathetic to Trump’s MAGA movement and therefore, more vulnerable to the NDP charge that she wouldn’t defend B.C.’s interests against him.

The party’s new interim leader is Lorne Doerkson, a more moderate figure who is also more critical of Trump. He will lead the party into the Oct. 24 election.

Sanjay Jeram, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, said voters aren’t usually very good at distinguishing between the responsibilities of the different levels of government, but seemed to have sussed out almost immediately this time that the New Democrats’ election call and efforts to play the Trump card were “disingenuous.”

“It’s a little far-fetched,” said Jeram.

And recent polls reflect that view. When the election was called, Eby’s New Democrats had a solid lead of between four and 10 percentage points over the Conservatives. Since then, depending on the poll, the NDP had fallen as many as six to eight percentage points, with those votes seeming to go straight to the Conservatives. Some recent polls in recent days have the Tory lead down to just a couple of points.

The NDP’s fall should be seen as a “ballot backlash,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute. “There’s a lot of unhappiness with this government.”

Unlike B.C. where there’s some flexibility on election dates, Quebec has fixed elections, leaving Fréchette and her Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) party no choice but to face voters. With the Oct. 5 election less than a week away, CAQ’s polling numbers have fallen five to seven points since the election call.

André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, said Fréchette also had little choice but to play the Trump card because she’s the leader of an unpopular CAQ government that had been in power for almost eight years.

“There was no other card to play,” said Lecours. “She had to play it.”

Analysts are divided over whether the potency of the Trump card has faded in Canadian politics or just won’t work as well at the provincial level.

Lecours said Canadian voters are getting used to the Trump threats and rhetoric and their impact is fading.

Recent polls have Carney’s Liberals with the support of almost half of Canadian voters and the Conservatives almost 20 percentage points behind. If the Trump factor has faded, Carney may be attracting support more for his plan and policies, analysts say, not just his defence of Canada.

If the Trump card has faded as a weapon for incumbents in Canada, some Conservatives acknowledge their challenge may have grown. Carney maintains a big lead without the full boost that he earned last year from his defence against Trump, many voters may now be buying into his policies and plan for the country.

“I think we have to start looking more at Carney for Carney’s success,” says Jeram.

National Post

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