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Forecasts about the number of applications

On this page you will find the following forecasts:

The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network consists of experts who meet three times a year to make quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and about asylum seekers arriving in Finland. The Finnish Immigration Service makes the projections in cooperation with different interest groups, and is responsible for coordinating the work.

The Finnish Immigration Service has updated its application volume projections for 2026 and 2027 in June 2026.

The forecasts are updated three times a year and published on the website of the Finnish Immigration Service. This page was last updated on 29 June 2026.

Continuing need for temporary protection

In January–May 2026, a total of 3,215 applications for temporary protection were submitted. This is 3% less than during the corresponding period last year. The number of incoming applications has remained steady this year. An increase in the number of applications for temporary protection is expected in the summer as Ukrainian seasonal workers arrive in Finland.

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of applicants for temporary protection who arrive in Finland in 2026 and 2027 will be 8,000–10,000 per year.

The number of applicants arriving from Ukraine depends on factors such as:

  • the duration and extent of the war
  • the development of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine
  • the strain on the reception capacity especially in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries and in the Baltic countries
  • National changes in social security or temporary protection conditions in the main host countries for Ukrainians.

Anticipating the situation in Ukraine and the number of applicants for temporary protection arriving in Finland is associated with many factors of uncertainty. If there are no changes in the state of war, it is likely that the migration of Ukrainians to the EU continues.

Temporary protection has been extended until March 2027.

Number of asylum applications predicted to remain on a moderate level

The Finnish Immigration Service’s application volume forecasts do not cover the instrumentalised migration that may be targeted against Finland and do not take a position on the effects of such operations. Preparation for combatting instrumentalisation operations is part of the preparedness and contingency activities of the administrative department of the Ministry of the Interior.

There are still significant push factors in the surrounding regions due to, for example, conflicts, social instability and lack of economic prospects in the countries of origin. At the same time, the situations in some countries of origin have improved and entry into the EU territory has continued to be restricted, keeping the number of asylum applications submitted in the EU on the decrease. In January–March, the number of asylum applications submitted in the EU+ countries (in the EU Member States, Norway and Switzerland) was slightly below 180,000, which is approximately 17% less than during the corresponding period last year.

The number of asylum applications in Finland and the other Nordic countries has declined, following the general trend in the EU. In January–May, a total of 717 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland, which is 7% less than during the corresponding period last year.

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that a total of 1,500–2,500 first asylum applications will be submitted in Finland per year in 2026 and 2027. There are no factors on the horizon for the current and next year that could be expected to significantly increase the number of applications compared to the current situation. The decline in the number of asylum seekers and the tightening of immigration policy in the territory of the EU, along with the internal border controls in force in several countries in the Schengen area, are likely to keep the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland moderate.

There are uncertainties relating to the estimation of the number of asylum applications. For example, sudden changes in the main countries of origin and transit can have unexpected effects that can extend to Finland.

Number of applications from students is not expected to increase in the next few years

In January–May 2026, a total of 3,534 applications for a first residence permit for studies were submitted, which is 25% less than in the corresponding period last year. Some of the probable reasons behind the stagnation in the number of applications compared to the growth in recent years are the introduction of a EUR 100 application fee in joint application to higher education at the beginning of 2025, the charging of fees for tuition at full cost as of autumn 2026, and the challenging labour market situation in Finland. As in previous years, Asian countries stood out as top applicant countries in January–May.

The Finnish Immigration Service has lowered its estimate of how many applications for a residence permit for studies will be submitted. According to the new estimate, a total of 11,000–12,000 applications are expected to be submitted this year. The application volume is expected to remain at the same level next year.

The number of first-time applications for residence permits by students is influenced by factors including:

  • the available intake for international degree programmes
  • the political, financial and social situation in key countries of departure
  • Finland’s labour market situation and attractiveness as a place to live and study.

Slight increase in the number of work-based residence permit applications despite economic uncertainties

In January–May 2026, a total of 6,156 applications for a first work-based residence permit were submitted, which is 16% more than during the corresponding period in 2025. After a period of decrease of several years, there was a slight increase in the application numbers. The increase in the number of applications this year is partly explained by the ongoing industrial projects in Finland (for example maritime and shipbuilding industry and data centres) for which labour has been recruited from abroad.

According to the Finnish Immigration Service’s estimate, the number of applications for a first work-based residence permit will increase in 2026, reaching slightly higher numbers than last year. In 2025, approximately 11,000 applications were submitted in total. For 2027, a moderate increase in the number of applications is possible if Finland’s economy develops in a favourable direction. However, the continuing economic uncertainties constitute a challenge to the forecasting of work-based migration to Finland. The number of applications submitted in 2026 is expected to be 11,000–13,000, and the estimate for 2027 is 12,000–14,000 applications.

The change in the number of applications for residence permits depends mainly on economic developments. Despite economic fluctuations, the ageing population and skills shortages are creating a need for foreign workers in Finland. Therefore, the number of work-based residence permit applications is expected to grow again when the economic situation stabilises.

The number of first work-based residence permit applications depends on factors including

  • the weaker economic situation and its duration
  • the development of international recruitment networks
  • national meaures, and
  • the decline of the working-age population, and labour market mismatches.