Why your takeaway coffee costs more than it did a few years ago

Analysis: The cost of the cup you bought this morning on the way to work is influenced by everything from wages and rents in Ireland to drought in Vietnam

By Eoin Plant, Edinburgh Napier University

If you buy coffee on your way to work, you've probably noticed the price rising. A drink that once cost around €3 is now often closer to €5 or €6, with speciality coffees commanding an even higher premium. The question of how much Irish consumers are willing to pay for coffee has also been discussed, showing that takeaway coffee prices have become a wider consumer issue rather than just a café-industry concern.

It's easy to assume cafés are simply charging more because they can, but the story behind the price of a takeaway coffee is much bigger than that. The cost of a cup bought in Dublin, Cork, Galway or Limerick is influenced by everything from wages and rents in Ireland to drought in Vietnam, weather problems in Brazil and disruption to global shipping routes. Few everyday purchases show how connected Ireland is to the global economy quite like a takeaway coffee.

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The challenge for coffee shops is that they sit at the intersection of several inflation pressures. A takeaway coffee is not just coffee beans. It is milk, cups, lids, electricity, rent, insurance, equipment, cleaning products and staff wages. Customers are also paying for convenience and location. That means even a relatively small increase in several costs at once can have a noticeable impact on the final price of a cup.

The impact can be seen in the prices charged by major coffee brands. RTÉ’s Bean Counting analysis found that a large Starbucks Americano was close to 19% more expensive than it was in 2020, while a large cappuccino was 16.5% dearer and a large mocha was 18.6% dearer. It also reported that a large Americano in Costa was 23% dearer, while a large cappuccino in the same chain had seen a similar increase.

Those figures matter because the rise is not just a speciality café issue. It is visible in mainstream coffee chains too. However, coffee beans are only one part of the story. Chains and independent cafés also face higher rents, wage costs, energy bills and operating expenses.

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One of the biggest factors has been the price of coffee beans themselves. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, world coffee prices rose sharply in 2024. By December 2024, Arabica coffee prices were 58% higher than a year earlier, while Robusta prices had risen by 70% in real terms.

Arabica beans are commonly associated with premium and speciality coffees. Robusta beans are widely used in espresso blends and instant coffee. Traditionally, when Arabica became expensive, roasters could use more Robusta to control costs. That became much harder when Robusta prices surged as well.

Why Vietnam matters to your morning coffee

Vietnam is the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee, accounting for more than 40% of global Robusta output, according to World Coffee Research. When drought affected key coffee-growing regions there, production fell sharply. The Food and Agriculture Organization reported that Vietnam's coffee output dropped by around 20% during the 2023/24 season, with exports also falling for the second consecutive year.

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That reduction had consequences far beyond Southeast Asia. Coffee is traded globally. When one of the world's biggest suppliers produces less, buyers compete more aggressively for available supplies. Prices rise and the effects ripple through the market. Ireland may not buy every bean directly from Vietnam, but Irish cafés still feel the impact because global coffee prices are interconnected.

Coffee is becoming a climate story

The bigger issue is that coffee is highly sensitive to climate. A widely cited academic paper projected that climate change could reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50% across emissions scenarios, with Brazil and Vietnam among the countries facing substantial changes in suitable growing area.

A later systematic review of climate change and coffee production found that research mostly points to negative effects, including declining yields, loss of coffee-optimal areas and the spread of pests and diseases. This matters for Ireland because climate risk in coffee-growing countries becomes price risk in consuming countries.

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The supply chain doesn't stop at the farm

Even after coffee is harvested, there is a long journey before it reaches an Irish café. Beans must be transported, stored, roasted, packaged and distributed.

Recent disruption to shipping routes through the Red Sea has created additional challenges for European importers. The International Monetary Fund said attacks on vessels reduced traffic through the Suez Canal and caused several shipping companies to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 days or more to delivery times on average.

The World Bank has also said disruption in the Red Sea has pushed vessels onto longer routes, increasing travel distances, freight rates and insurance costs. Then there are new regulations. The European Union's Deforestation Regulation covers coffee and is designed to ensure that products consumed in the EU do not contribute to deforestation or forest degradation.

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The environmental goal is clear. But compliance will require more traceability and documentation across the supply chain, which may add costs.

What happens next?

There is some more positive news. Coffee markets have eased from the extreme levels seen in 2025. The International Coffee Organization said its Composite Indicator Price averaged 266.24 US cents per pound in April 2026, down 2.7% from March, as improved supply expectations weighed against freight and energy pressures. Trading Economics and the Financial Times reported that benchmark coffee prices were down by more than 23% year-on-year in June 2026.

One reason is Brazil. Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop is expected to be 11.5% larger than the previous season, helped by better weather and crop care. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed up the crude oil price by 55.8% and shipping freight costs by 43.6% as a counter measure.

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So it does not necessarily mean cheaper takeaway coffee. Cafés usually buy through contracts, roasters and distributors, so lower commodity prices can take time to feed through. They also still face Irish costs such as wages, rent, insurance, energy and packaging.

The most likely outcome is not a return to the era of cheap coffee, but a market where prices fluctuate more than they once did. The next time your coffee feels expensive, remember that you are paying for more than beans: you are paying for a global supply chain condensed into a drink that takes just a few minutes to consume.

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Prof Eoin Plant-O'Toole is Professor of Logistics and Supply Chain Management at Edinburgh Napier University and Chair of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport Ireland Policy Committee.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ