Republican state Senator Christine Drazan narrowly leads Democratic Governor Tina Kotek in Oregon's gubernatorial race, according to a new poll, putting the GOP within reach of a seat it hasn't won since 1982.
The survey of 915 likely voters, conducted by DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) from September 17 to 27, found Drazan at 47 percent and Kotek at 46 percent after undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward.
Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith drew 3 percent, while 4 percent remained undecided.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.24 percentage points.
It follows a series of surveys showing the Republican candidate leading since June. A GOP victory in Oregon could rank among the more unexpected midterm results, given that half of the likely voters surveyed said they backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with 38 percent who said they voted for President Donald Trump.
Trey Rosser, a Drazan campaign strategist, told Newsweek the polling reflects growing support for Drazan across the political spectrum and pointed to her campaign's focus on the economy, housing and education.
“Poll after poll is showing that Oregonians of all political stripes are fed up with Tina Kotek’s failed leadership and finding more and more reasons to support Christine Drazan. While Kotek is busy blaming and shaming other people for problems that have gotten worse on her watch, Christine is building support around her plan to lower costs, tackle homelessness, build more housing, improve education, and demand accountability from state government.”
Federico Araujo, communications director for Tina for Oregon, told Newsweek the poll shows there is still time for the campaign to reach undecided voters and argued that the choice between Kotek and Drazan is clear.
"There are still many undecided voters ahead of November. But when the choice is clear in an election, they always show up. And the choice couldn't be any clearer in this race: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump's agenda and Governor Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm."
Republicans Eye a Historic Oregon Comeback
The race is one of the few governor's contests where Republicans are on offense in a reliably blue state, during a midterm cycle that has largely favored Democrats nationally.
A Drazan win would make her Oregon's first Republican governor since Victor Atiyeh, who won his second term in 1982. Atiyeh served two terms, from 1979 to 1987.
It would also end a decade-long statewide drought for the party. Dennis Richardson's 2016 victory for secretary of state remains the last statewide election a Republican has won in Oregon. Before that, former Senator Gordon Smith was the last Republican to win statewide, in 2002.
No Republican presidential candidate has carried Oregon since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Harris beat Trump there 55 percent to 41 percent in 2024.
What Polls Have Shown So Far
Public polling in the race has been limited, but every survey since the May primary has shown the Republicans tied or ahead.
Earlier in the year, the picture looked different. A January poll by FM3 Research, sponsored by Charlie Health, showed Kotek leading former NBA player Chris Dudley, then a Republican primary candidate, by 10 points, 45 percent to 35 percent.
The race tightened by spring. A Hoffman Research Group poll for Dudley's campaign in mid-May found Drazan and Kotek tied at 45 percent each. In late June, a Public Opinion Strategies survey for Drazan's campaign put her up 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent.
Nonpartisan and outside polling has since shown a closer contest. A DHM Research survey for the business-backed group Grow Oregon in early September had Drazan ahead 45 percent to 43 percent. The OPB poll, also by DHM, shows her leading by 1 point, with fewer undecided voters than earlier surveys.
All of the recent results fall within their margins of error.
Oregon Republicans have seen this before. In 2022, Drazan led in some polls heading into Election Day before later surveys moved toward Kotek, who won by about 3.5 points.
National forecasters have taken notice. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat" in September, two months after moving it out of "Solid Democrat" territory.
"Oregon’s gubernatorial contest is one of the rare races moving in Republicans’ direction despite the national climate," Cook wrote in its race analysis. Drazan was the Republican nominee in 2022.
Sabato's Crystal Ball still rates the race "Likely Democrat."
What To Know About Oregon's Governor Race
The race is a rematch of 2022, when Kotek beat Drazan in a three-way contest. With no third candidate competing for conservative votes this time, Drazan has been able to spend more time in the state's population centers.
Voters are sour on the state's direction according to the most recent OPB poll. Only 29 percent of likely voters said Oregon is headed the right way, while 58 percent said it is on the wrong track. Nearly three in four, 73 percent, rated the state's economy as poor.
Asked in an open-ended question to name the state's most important problem, voters most often cited cost of living at 18 percent, followed by high taxes at 16 percent, homelessness at 13 percent and poor leadership at 11 percent. Another 9 percent named Democrats or one-party rule. Five percent mentioned Trump and the federal government.
Their own finances look better. Sixty-nine percent of likely voters described their personal financial situation as good, a gap that suggests frustration with state government more than with household budgets.
When voters rated how much specific issues would shape their vote, cost of living and the economy topped the list, each called important by 98 percent. K-12 education followed at 94 percent, homelessness at 93 percent and health care at 92 percent. Abortion, at 69 percent, and climate change, at 58 percent, ranked near the bottom.
Despite Republicans facing headwinds nationally over the economy, Oregon voters give them an edge on economic issues. Forty-four percent of likely voters said they would prefer a conservative governor to handle the economy, compared with 32 percent who preferred a liberal governor. The numbers reverse on social issues, where 42 percent favor a liberal governor and 37 percent a conservative one. Kotek has focused on abortion access and LGBTQ+ rights as part of her campaign.
Trump Card May Not Be Enough for Democrats
Kotek has made tying Drazan to Trump central to her campaign. But the poll suggests the strategy may have limits, even in a deep-blue state.
Trump is viewed favorably by 37 percent of likely voters, just one point behind Kotek at 38 percent. Sixty-three percent view Trump negatively, including 57 percent who view him very negatively. Sixty percent view Kotek negatively, including 46 percent who view her very negatively.
Drazan's numbers are more evenly split, with 45 percent viewing her favorably and 45 percent unfavorably. Another 10 percent said they did not know enough to have an opinion.
Drazan has tried to keep the focus on Oregon. At a debate in May, she said Kotek wants the race to be about Trump and portrayed him as the opponent Kotek thinks she is running against. Drazan's campaign has focused on schools, housing, homelessness and the economy.
The race has also drawn neither a Trump endorsement nor significant spending from the Republican Governors Association, a contrast with 2022, when the RGA treated Drazan as a priority pickup.
Drazan has not broken with Trump, however. When Trump moved to send the National Guard to Portland last year, Drazan, then the House Republican leader, issued a statement blaming state and local leaders for allowing "violent mobs and domestic terrorists" to assault federal agents at the city's ICE facility. Weeks later, a House Republican spokesperson said Drazan opposed deploying Guard members from other states, then asked to retract the statement.
Drazan has also campaigned with national Republicans, appearing with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at a party dinner in Hillsboro and scheduling an event with Montana Governor Greg Gianforte in Eugene.
Data Centers and AI
The fight over artificial intelligence infrastructure has become one of the race's sharpest flashpoints. Oregon ranks among the top 10 U.S. markets for data centers, according to Pew Research.
On September 3, Drazan released an ad accusing Kotek of giving data centers $1 billion in tax breaks while raising taxes on Oregonians by more than $6 billion. Democrats responded by branding her "Data Center Drazan," and Kotek has hit her for voting against the POWER Act, a 2025 law requiring tech companies to pay higher electricity rates to cover data centers' energy use.
Within days, both candidates hardened their positions. Kotek appeared at an anti-data center rally in Salem and announced support for a moratorium on new facilities; within hours, Drazan said she also backed an immediate pause. Weeks earlier, Drazan had told OPB she did not support ending existing tax breaks for the industry.
The OPB poll shows a gap between how loudly the issue is being fought and how voters rank it. Only 2 percent named data centers or AI as the state's most important problem. Yet 72 percent said the candidates' positions on data centers would matter to their vote, with 40 percent calling them very important, more than said the same about guns, abortion or climate change. A July DHM poll found 71 percent of Oregonians view data centers negatively.
Newsweek's AI Policy Scorecard, which rates every sitting member of Congress from 1, or AI Skeptic, to 5, or AI Booster, gives Oregon's eight-member congressional delegation an average score of 2.5. The score is based on lawmakers' voting records and public positions on AI regulation, data centers and energy, jobs, safety and privacy, and national security. No Oregon lawmaker receives a full Booster rating.
Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley has the lowest score in the delegation, at 1.4. Representatives Maxine Dexter, Suzanne Bonamici and Val Hoyle, all Democrats, are rated as leaning Skeptic. Senator Ron Wyden and Representatives Andrea Salinas and Janelle Bynum, also Democrats, fall in the Mixed range.
The only Oregon lawmaker on the Booster side of the scale is Republican Representative Cliff Bentz, who scores 3.6. His eastern Oregon district includes Umatilla County, home to some of the state's largest data centers and about a fifth of its facilities, according to an analysis by ECOnorthwest and the University of Virginia.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.