All-In Podcast

Chamath on downward job revisions in August 2024: “It's insane that the largest and most sophisticated economy in the world is this unpredictable.” You Heard It Here First 🔮 One year ago, the BLS revised nonfarm payrolls down by 818,000, the largest revision in 15 years. On E193, Chamath explained why these constant revisions are a major issue: “ If you don't have an accurate sense of where employment really is, you will also then have an inaccurate sense of where GDP is.” “And I think the 1-2 punch could be very problematic.” “I think what we're learning more than anything else is we have a very sophisticated economy.” “We have a very sophisticated capital market system.” “We have very sophisticated actors in those markets who can react to real-time data and make the right decisions.” “The problem is, we have bad data.” “And the bad data, I think, is something that is fixable, but we need to make an effort to do it.” “How is it possible in 2024 that we haven't just made this a priority to fix this?” “And with all of the systems that exist, and all of the SaaS tools that exist, and everything that's used to hire and fire and pay people, we don't have an accurate sense of this number?”

 David Friedberg: AI is starting to identify and solve problems on its own “I'll give you a science corner example: there's this Evo 2 model that they publish at the Arc Institute, which Patrick Collison, you know, is the main funder and chairman.” “So that Evo 2 model, they just ingested all the DNA data they could find in the world.” “Trillions and trillions of base paired data that they ingested and then they looked at patterns in DNA, and that's it.” “They had no context for what the DNA represented, they had no context for the concept of genes, none of the structured understanding of what that DNA does, what it is, and you know what it did?” “They fed in the BRCA gene variant and the thing output a warning saying, ‘I think that this is a pathogenic variant to DNA,’ without having any context.” “This is the breast cancer allele.” “And it didn't have any knowledge and it wasn't trained on that at all.” “It had no knowledge that there are pathogenic variants for cancer, and it identified that this was a genetic variant that can cause some sort of pathogenic outcome in the organism.” “That's a great example where there's a lack of understanding at the human level on what really drives some of the patterns in nature, the patterns in society, the patterns in behavior that are kind of emergent phenomena perhaps, that these AI models are starting to identify.”

David Sacks: The AI Race is bigger than the Space Race 🇺🇸 "This was the first speech that President Trump has given on AI since the AI boom began." "And he declared that the United States was in an AI race. It's a global competition." "The language that he used was reminiscent of how President John F. Kennedy declared that America was in a space race, and in a similar way, President Trump declared that we had to win the AI race." "I think you could argue that the AI race is more important than the space race." "It's going to reshape the global economy, it's going to determine who the superpowers are of the 21st century." During his speech, President Trump laid out three key pillars of American AI dominance: 1) Innovation (let the geniuses cook) 2) Infrastructure (energy, datacenters) 3) Exports (make US tech stack the global standard) The president also noted that it matters HOW we win, mentioning three non-negotiables: 1) American workers have to be at the center of the prosperity created by AI 2) AI models that the government procures and buys must be free of ideological bias (no Woke AI) 3) Prevent misuse and/or theft by malicious actors

🔮You Heard It Here First: Hot GDP Print in Q2🔥 Q2 GDP came in at 3% on the first read. This was significantly higher than the ~2% estimate by economists. (via FactSet) Chamath on May 31st: "What you're probably going to see in Q2 is a really hot GDP print." "If I'm a betting man, which I am, I think the GDP print's gonna come in above three." "Not quite four, but above three." Chamath on June 13th: " I said a couple weeks ago that I thought the GDP print was going to come in hot." "I think everybody now is sort of where I am." "I think it's gonna be in the low to mid threes." "It's going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting."

🚨 All-In Summit Speaker Announcement: Orlando Bravo -- Co-Founder and Managing Partner, Thoma Bravo -- ~$180B in AUM -- Recently closed ~$34B+ across three funds Orlando will join the Besties on stage at the 2025 All-In Summit! Tickets: https://allin.com/summit 2024 Recap: https://lnkd.in/eiz5UMtT

🚨 All-In Summit Speaker Announcement: Cleo Abram -- Creator, Huge If True -- 6M+ YouTube Subscribers -- Focus on tech and science from an optimistic POV Cleo will join the Besties for a special "Science Corner" segment at the 2025 All-In Summit! Tickets: https://allin.com/summit 2024 Recap: https://lnkd.in/eiz5UMtT

Energy Secretary Chris Wright: "Nuclear is the single biggest issue I work on." "We will have three next generation Gen IV reactors, critical, in Idaho National Lab next summer." "We are supplying HALEU, the fuel for these next generation reactors." "We've already committed to five and we'll give it to a dozen of these next generation reactor companies." "We worked in the One Big, Beautiful Bill to keep in the nudge, the tax credits for nuclear, because the government smothered the industry and killed it for three decades." "Even a free market guy like me thinks we need to get a little help to get it started." Friedberg: "How far away are we until it's free market running?" Secretary Wright: "Probably 10 years." "Because it's just a learning curve." "With the small modular reactors, you got to build up the supply chain and build them in volume." "The cost can come down dramatically."   Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE: http://nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Exporting the American Tech Stack is Vital to Winning the AI Race "DeepSeek, when it came out, it was a great win for the United States." "Imagine if DeepSeek came out and it only ran on Huawei?" "Could you imagine if Qwen came out and it only worked on a non-American tech stack?" "Could you imagine if Kimi came out and it only worked on a non-American tech stack?" "And these are the top three open models in the world today. It is downloaded hundreds of millions of times." "So the fact of the matter is, (the) American tech stack, all over the world, being the world's standard, is vital to the future of winning the AI race." "You can't do it any other way." "As you know, any computing platform wins because of developers. And half of the world's developers are in China."   Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE: http://nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com

🚨AMD CEO Lisa Su: AI is the most transformational technology of our lifetimes because it impacts all industries and every type of business Jason Calacanis: "Pretty obvious we're hitting artificial general intelligence at this moment." "I think we'd all agree we're starting to see that." "But superintelligence can't be far behind that." "Assume we hit that superintelligence, what will the world look like in 10 years, in the most optimistic scenario, if we do this right?" Lisa Su: "The exciting part about it, and you know, I can say this very sincerely. I mean, this is the most transformational technology, sort of in our lifetimes. That's the way we should think about AI. Chamath Palihapitiya: "Orders of magnitude." Lisa Su: "Orders of magnitude." "And the reason is, it's not just going after one aspect, right?" "You can actually take AI and make science better." "You can take AI and make medicine better." "You can take AI and make manufacturing better." "You can take AI and make every aspect of your business better." "And so, in my mind, 10 years from now, we'd like to believe that we are really leveraging it to solve some of the world's most important problems." "I like to say AMDers get up in the morning and they say, 'How can I use technology to solve some of the most important challenges in the world?' and AI is really our mechanism for doing that."   AMD Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE: http://nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com

🚨Why Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is generous with comp: "If you take care of people, everything else takes care of itself." Jason: "Somebody who was inside your organization told me that you have a secret pool of options and that you will randomly just, if somebody does a great job, drop a bunch of RSUs on top of them." "And that you have this little bag of options you carry around and that you give them out." Jensen Huang: "That's nuts." Jason: "Is that true?" Jensen: "Yeah, I'm carrying them in my pocket right now." "So this is what happens. I review everybody's compensation, up to this day, at the end of every cycle." "I go through the whole company, and I've got my methods of doing that. I use machine learning, I do all kinds of technology." "I sort through all 42,000 employees. And 100% of the time I increase the company's spend on OpEx." "And the reason for that is because if you take care of people, everything else takes care of itself." Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE: http://nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com