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In-Depth Reports on Syria
What Might Be Expected in Monitoring Syria: Lessons from Past Middle East Weapons InspectionsPast attempts to control the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) of rogue regimes in the Middle East have faced problems. Read More » Why Did Obama Go to Congress on Syria?U.S. President Barack Obama’s decision to seek congressional authorization for a military strike against Syria is the latest chapter in an ongoing struggle between the executive branch and the legislative branch in the U.S. over each side’s powers to decide […] Read More » President Obama’s Shift on Syria and Western StrategyA limited military move will allow the Syrian regime to maneuver, yet will provide fresh impetus to the rebel forces. Read More » Assad’s Standing in Syria on the Eve of US ActionThere is a fundamental question concerning President Bashar Assad’s decision to launch the devastating chemical attack on the eastern Damascus suburb of Ghouta on August 21, that led to as many as 1,300 fatalities, according to opposition sources. Read More » Frustration and Disgust: International Inaction over SyriaIt is questionable whether or not the U.S. and the international community will ultimately punish Syria for the indiscriminate and criminal use of chemical weapons against its own civilian population. Whatever they decide to do, one striking fact nevertheless stands […] Read More » Syria Keeps Moving in the Islamic DirectionThe formation of the Army of Islam in Syria challenges the National Coalition Read More » The Chemical Attack in Syria: ImplicationsThe regime of Syrian president Bashar Assad has once again made use of chemical weapons in Syria’s bloody civil war, which has cost over 100,000 lives since it began in March 2011. An aerial bombardment of several communities in the […] Read More » The Kurdish Awakening in Syria: Could It Lead to Regional War?A “Greater Kurdistan” is no longer a remote possibility. Read More » Strategic Shifts in the Middle EastThe Iranian nuclear industry was designed to produce hundreds of nuclear bombs mounted on long-range missiles. Read More » Amb. Dore Gold Addresses the Israeli President’s Conference – 2013Jerusalem, June 19, 2013 Permanent Status Negotiations with the Palestinians I thought the question was a little bit different, what you asked. Should we sit and wait, or should we act? So I interpreted what the question was as, “should […] Read More » The Arab world fears the ‘Safavid’In an interview on Al-Jazeera this past May, the commander of the Free Syrian Army, Brig. Gen. Salim Idris, explained that the diversion of Hezbollah forces from Lebanon to Syria to take part in the civil war was part of a “Safavid” plan for the Middle East region. Read More » How Russia Undercuts Itself With The S-300Supply of the S-300 by Moscow will create an air defense umbrella over Syria allowing Damascus to carry out weapons transfers to Hezbollah. Read More » Iranian Forces on the Golan?On May 26, 2013, the Iranian regime officially began to recruit Basiji fighters to fight with Assad’s troops in Syria. The Basij are the popular militia of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and serve as a reserve formation. Known […] Read More » Iran’s Arms Supply to Hizbullah: International DimensionsIn an exceptional political signal, a senior Israeli official contacted Mark Landler of the New York Times and explained that the Israeli government was determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hizbullah. The official, who remained […] Read More » Iran’s Plans to Take Over SyriaIran sees the civil war in Syria as a war of survival against a radical Sunni uprising that views Iran and the Shiites as infidels to be annihilated. Read More » Stalemate in the Syrian Civil WarOn the second anniversary of the civil war in Syria, nothing on the horizon foretells a ceasefire. Read More » Syria: Has the Assad Regime Reached the Terminal Phase?The Syrian regime is steadily losing ground to rebel forces, since as much as 60 to 70 percent of the territory has fallen into their hands. Read More » The “Day After” Scenario in SyriaThe Assad regime will seek to transfer loyal forces and strategic (including chemical) weaponry to the Alawite enclave to deter acts of revenge. Read More » After Assad, the real bloodbathAs we speak, the key rejectionist groups who are united in opposition to Bashar Assad’s government in Syria are meeting in Morocco. This is the fourth summit convened by the Syrian opposition-in-exile, which for the last 18 months has had limited success in achieving the ultimate goal of removing the Alawite regime from power. Read More » Hizbullah’s Unspoken War in SyriaHizbullah claims control of 18 Shiite villages in Syria along the border with Lebanon. Read More » The Future of Kurdistan: Between Turkey, the Iraq War, and the Syrian RevoltKurdistan – at the tri-border area between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey – may be the new regional flashpoint in the Middle East. Read More » Meanwhile, in Jordan…The U.S. and its allies must have a strategic interest in protecting Jordan’s economic stability and in assuring that it has the full support of the Gulf states, which together are ultimately facing the very same threat from the east. Read More » Syrian chemical weapons and al-QaidaDuring a nighttime raid in Amman on April 20, 2004, Jordanian security forces foiled a plot by al-Qaida to attack the headquarters of Jordanian intelligence, the Jordanian prime minister’s office and the U.S. Embassy with chemical weapons. Tons of chemical agents were seized that apparently had come from Syria. Jordanian officials estimated that the chemical attack could have killed 20,000 people. Moment of Truth Approaching in DamascusIn his instructions to the rebel forces, Free Syrian Army commander Riad al-Asaad outlined the main points of his battle plan. In a video uploaded to YouTube on Monday, Asaad ordered the rebel forces in southern Syria and in the rural part of Damascus to make their way to the neighborhoods of Damascus. Read More » The Role of Iranian Security Forces in SyriaAmid the intensifying crisis in Syria, which in recent weeks has seen massacres of the civilian population in various parts of the country, Iranian military, propaganda, and economic assistance keeps flowing in, and its aim is help President Bashar al-Assad survive. Read More » Syria and the Decline of the UNIsrael must internalize the change in the U.N.’s status the next time a U.N. official decides to issue another politicized “condemnation” about its actions. Read More » Al-Qaeda and the Jihadists Join the Battle against the Syrian RegimeThe battle over Syria has descended into a carefully orchestrated uprising coordinated and fueled by al-Qaeda operatives. Read More » Updating Israel’s Security PolicyIf you ask any Arab leader about the greatest threat, he will say Iran – not Israel – but not publicly. Read More » Michael Widlanski on the Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations by Lee SmithJewish Political Studies Review 23:1-2 (Spring 2011) What is the key to understanding the Middle East? Sometimes a perceptive outsider can grasp the political culture of a state or a region better than a native observer or an academic. Lee […] Read More » Russia, China Let Syrians BleedFor Israel, the ineffectiveness of the U.N. Security Council in the Syrian crisis has underscored the continuing relevance of the political traditions established by Israel’s founders, especially the idea that its security must be based on its ability to defend itself by itself, and not on any international guarantees through bodies like the U.N. Read More » Is the Wind Turning in Favor of Assad?The Baba Amro district of Homs may now become the turning point in battle between opposition forces and Assad’s regime. Read More » Iran: The Syrian Highway in the Fight Against Israel Is Still OpenThe wave of protest in Syria has put to the test the strategic alliance between Iran (and Hizbullah) and Bashar Assad’s regime. Syria is the main state component of the “resistance camp” and serves as a logistical hinterland for Hizbullah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran sees its unequivocal backing for Syria as a demonstration of its ability to stay loyal to its allies despite the regional turmoil. Read More » Assad’s Alawi AlliesThey also could explain why Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz told the Knesset Foreign and Defense Committee this week that Israel must prepare for a wave of Alawi refugees who might seek refuge in Israel as the conflict continues in Syria. Read More » Goodbye Iraq. Hello IranThe new situation emerging as a result makes the strategic logic of Israel retaining the Jordan Valley as its forward line of defense even more compelling, just as leading voices in the international community are unfortunately pressuring it to fully withdraw from the West Bank and accept the 1967 lines. Read More » Is There an End in Sight to the Syrian Regime?Events in Syria seem to have reached a stalemate. On the one hand, the regime is failing to quell the civilian rebellion against it, while on the other hand, the opposition to Bashar Assad cannot yet be seen as an […] Read More » The “Free Syrian Army” Challenges AssadThe Free Syrian Army (FSA), the rebel force fighting Syria’s President Bashar Assad, has included “Raising the flag on Iwo Jima” – depicting the bravery of U.S. Marines in World War II – on its official Facebook page. This appears […] Read More » What will Iran do if Assad Falls?The changing situation provides yet another reason why Israel must not be pushed into sacrificing vital security assets, like the Jordan Valley, which has been the front line of its defense for decades and will be critical in the future against the uncertainty it faces to its east in the years ahead. Read More » The Arab Peace Initiative: A Primer and Future ProspectsIn the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the U.S., Saudi Arabia was under intense scrutiny since 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis. In Feb. 2002, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia proposed to Israel “full withdrawal” from the territories in return for “full normalization.” Read More » Defensible Borders on the Golan HeightsIsraeli-Syrian negotiations in 1999-2000 discussed security arrangements to compensate Israel for the loss of the Golan Heights. The idea was to guarantee that in case of war, IDF forces could quickly return to the place where they are currently stationed. This analysis demonstrates that Israel does not possess a plausible solution to its security needs without the Golan Heights. Not only was the “solution” proposed in the year 2000 implausible at the time, but changing circumstances have rendered Israel’s forfeiture of the Golan today an even more reckless act. Read More » The Syrian Uprising: Implications for IsraelIn Syria, the story is the emergence of social groups from the periphery and their struggle to gain access to power and take over the center. The emergence of the Baath party and the Assad dynasty in the 1960s involved a coalition of peripheral forces led by the Alawites, but many others joined who came from the periphery. Now, because of socioeconomic reasons, the periphery has turned against the regime. Read More » Hizbullah’s Predicament in Light of Syria’s DeclineFive years after the Second Lebanon War, a war whose results Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah considers a “divine victory,” Hizbullah has currently reached one of its lowest points due to the endangered survival of the Assad regime in Syria, as well as the international tribunal that has demanded the extradition of four Hizbullah members suspected of murdering former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Read More » How Iran Is Helping Assad Suppress Syria’s “Arab Spring”Since the beginning of the protest wave against Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, Iran has backed Damascus and assisted it in both the security and propaganda aspects of its violent repression of the protests. Tehran charges that Syria is the victim of an attempt by the West, led by the United States, to overthrow the Assad regime, under cover of the “Arab Spring.” Read More » Does Israel have an interest in Assad’s fall?About a month ago, a new rumor started to spread in Washington that Israel did not want to see Assad fall. Those critical of Israel privately said that the reason the Obama administration was not pressuring Syria the way it had pressured Libya was because of Israel. In fact, the Israeli government has been extremely careful not to express its opinion regarding the uprising in Syria because it is an internal issue. Nonetheless, senior academics and former Israeli officials have been widely interviewed as private citizens in the international media. The main view voiced is that it is better for Israel to work with the “devil we know, rather than the devil we don’t know.” Read More » Does Israel Have an Interest in Assad’s Fall?The main view voiced is that it is better for Israel to work with the “devil we know, rather than the devil we don’t know.” Read More » Iran Steps Up Arming Hizbullah Against IsraelHizbullah has 50,000 rockets and missiles, including 40-50 Fatah 110 missiles and 10 SCUD-C ground-to-ground missiles. Furthermore, some 10,000 Hizbullah fighters have been provided with a broad range of modern weapons, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have trained Hizbullah teams to operate these weapons. Read More » The Expulsion of the Jews from Muslim Countries, 1920-1970: A History of Ongoing Cruelty and DiscriminationBetween 1920 and 1970, 900,000 Jews were expelled from Arab and other Muslim countries. The 1940s were a turning point in this tragedy; of those expelled, 600,000 settled in the new state of Israel, and 300,000 in France and the United States. Today, they and their descendents form the majority of the French Jewish community and a large part of Israel’s population. Read More » Is Israel Facing War with Hizbullah and Syria?In February, Syrian President Bashad Assad hosted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Damascus. Afterward, Hizbullah’s online magazine suggested that war with Israel was on the horizon. Damascus’ support for "resistance" was on full display at the Arab Summit in Libya in late March, where Assad urged Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to abandon U.S.-supported negotiations and “take up arms against Israel.” Read More » Prospects for Arab-Israeli Regional CooperationRegional cooperation begins with resuming negotiations with the Palestinians. In the interests of achieving a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace, Israel sees the economic domain as one of the cornerstones of good relations. Read More » Syria and Turkey: Walking Arm in Arm Down the Same Road?Two factors have led to Turkey’s shift away from Israel and toward Syria. First, Turkey no longer needed Israeli assistance to pressure the Syrian government to change its policy of providing safe-haven to the terrorist Kurdish Worker’s Organization (PKK). Second, in the past seven years, once secular Turkish politics have undergone a profound Islamist transformation. Read More » Wolfgang G. Schwanitz on Nazism in Syria and Lebanon. The Ambivalence of the German Option, 1933-1945Hitler in the Levant: How Arabs Reacted to the Third Reich in Syria and Lebanon Syria and Hizbullah After the Lebanese ElectionsThe desire in Washington and Riyadh to repair damaged relations with Damascus is admirable, but should not come at the expense of Lebanon and the larger U.S. strategic goal of weakening Iranian influence in the Levant. While a diplomatic rapprochement with Syria might result in some marginal improvements in its behavior, this would likely have little impact on Syria’s thirty-year strategic relationship with Tehran. Read More » The Obama Administration Reaches Out to Syria: Implications for IsraelIn early March, two senior U.S. officials traveled to Damascus for the highest-level bilateral meeting in years, part of the new administration’s policy of “engagement.” Based on Syria’s track record, there is little reason to be optimistic that the Obama administration will succeed where others have failed. Damascus today remains a brutal dictatorship, which derives its regional influence almost exclusively through its support for terrorism in neighboring states. Read More » Decoupling Syria from Iran: Constraints on U.S.-Syrian RapprochementWhile moving Syria into the Western camp would be a great accomplishment, it’s not clear that this development would necessarily constitute a long-term strategic setback for Iranian efforts to undermine U.S. policy in Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, and Iraq. In the absence of Syria, Iran would still be capable of supporting Hizbullah, Hamas, and its Shiite allies in Iraq. Read More » Jordan’s Outreach to Hamas: The Politics of DistressHamas influence in Jordan and the West Bank is rising. Iran and Russia are moving to reshape the Middle East. At the same time, Jordan fears it cannot trust the political will of its traditional allies as Israel has diplomatically engaged Jordan’s adversaries – Syria and Hamas. Read More » Talking to Terrorists: The Myths, Misconceptions and Misapplication of the Northern Ireland Peace ProcessFor the British government, formal negotiations with the IRA could only occur in a context in which republican violence had been brought to an end. Read More » Syria: Between Negotiations with Israel and the Iranian AxisWhen Israel announced on May 21, 2008, that it had officially resumed negotiations with Syria in Turkey, not surprisingly, the Assad regime merely pocketed this diplomatic gain, providing no sign that it had any intention to meet Israeli requirements. It does not make sense for Israel to be pushing ahead with negotiations now. Read More » The Golan Heights and the Syrian-Israeli NegotiationsIsraeli negotiators will quickly discover three core areas in their discussions with the Syrians that they will not resolve easily: delineation of an agreed boundary, security arrangements, and the Syrian-Iranian alliance. The U.S. has given Israel repeated diplomatic assurances in the past that Israel will not have to come down from the Golan Heights. Read More » Is Syria an Ally or Adversary of Radical Sunni Movements?We should be very realistic about what we can get from Syria. Syria is not about to become a close ally of the United States and part of what we call the moderate camp in the region. Read More » Turkey: Between the Iranian-Syrian Axis, Israel, and the WestThree hours after the September 6 incident involving Israel and Syria, the Iranian government sent a warning to Turkey saying that if it was involved in support of Israel and the U.S., Turkey would not get away unscathed. Iran is not exporting its Shi’ism into Turkey, but it is exporting radical Islam into Turkey, feeding it to the Sunni population. In 1999 after a major earthquake in Turkey, Israel was the first nation to come to the rescue and they saved many lives. _x000D_ Read More » Syria’s Role in Regional Destabilization: An American ViewIn the aftermath of Israel’s air operation over Syria, Dr. Andrew Semmel, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy and Negotiations, warned that Syria might have a number of “secret suppliers” for a covert nuclear program. Syria is reported to have thousands of rockets with ranges of up to 56 miles positioned along Syria’s southern border with Israel. Read More » Anatomy of Syrian-Israeli Tensions: A Background AnalysisSyria served as a primary conduit for the build-up of Iranian-backed Hizbullah prior to the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War in July 2006. Damascus supplied the majority of the heavy-payload rockets Hizbullah fired at Israel Read More » Russia’s New Middle Eastern Policy: Back to Bismarck?Vol. 6, No. 25 Russian President Vladimir Putin has outlined a new Russian Middle Eastern policy and has made a precedent-setting visit to Saudi Arabia, and to other traditional American allies in the Middle East. Russia has been increasing its sales […] Read More » Is Gaza Becoming Another Lebanon?Listen carefully to Ahmadinejad. He is not insane. He embodies very accurately the nature of the Iranian regime and he is gaining popularity among Muslims. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, sitting in Damascus where he is supported by Iran and Syria, controls the military wing of Hamas and is more powerful than PA Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh. Mashaal is responsible for the money, for the policy of terror, and he holds many cards relating to Israel’s abducted soldier in Gaza. Read More » The Iraq Study Group: Implications for IsraelIsrael should not try to second-guess U.S. decisions about putting American soldiers in harm’s way. However, the specific strategy that the Baker-Hamilton report proposes for facilitating an American pullback in Iraq – the use of an international support group including Iran and Syria – poses serious problems that affect vital Israeli interests. Read More » A Strategic Assessment of the Hizballah War: Defeating the Iranian-Syrian Axis in LebanonIsrael’s current military operations to uproot Hizballah and to destroy it as a formidable military and terror organization is not merely an operation against another determined terror group like Hamas in Gaza. Hizballah has a disciplined, well-trained army with sophisticated weaponry, backed directly by Syria and Iran. Read More » To Retain Credibility, U.N. Must Insist Syria BehaveThe U.N.’s oil-for-food scandal was placed center stage last year, but with Iraqi elections fast-approaching, there is another scandalous development at the U.N. that is beginning to receive national attention: How Syria, which served as a member of the U.N. Security Council from early 2002 through the end of 2003, has been continuing to back international terrorism and even turning itself into the main line of supply for the current insurgency in western Iraq. Read More » Syrian Foreign Policy Under Bashar al-AssadHafez al-Assad was a master in using terrorist organizations to promote Syrian interests and achieve political gains that he couldn’t otherwise accomplish. By using terror and local agents, Syria gained control over Lebanon and forced both Israel and America to leave. Yet there has been no Syrian involvement in operations inside Western countries since 1986. Read More » Undermining the War on Terrorism: The Role of Yasser Arafat and the Syrian RegimeAs long as Yasser Arafat remains the sovereign of the Palestinian entity, there is not the slightest chance for real peace. Peace, for Arafat, means one big Palestine from the Mediterranean to the Iraqi desert – including Jordan, the West Bank, and Israeli Arabs. The Oct. 4 bombing of a Haifa restaurant that killed 21 people was carried out by Islamic Jihad. Without Syria’s support, it would be very difficult for this terror organization to function. _x000D_ Read More » Israel’s Strategy after the Iraq WarIn seeking democratization for the Middle East, the U.S. sees as its models Japan and Germany following World War II, both defeated in war and reconstructed in its aftermath. Let us remember that Israel paved the way for the Americans by halting Iraq’s nuclear plans in 1981, a demonstration of strategic cooperation between Israel and the U.S. Beyond Iraq: Missile Proliferation in the Middle EastBeyond the Iraqi missile threat to Israel in the 1990s, missile threats to Israel have emerged from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Libya. Yet many of the New Middle East missile powers are determined to project their power toward Europe. Missile suppliers in the Middle East include North Korea, China, and Russian and Indian companies. Read More » The Assad Visit to London: Background and ImplicationsSyria remains one of the worst state-sponsors of international terrorism, providing a haven for leaders of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas. Syria sponsors Hizballah in Lebanon, an international terrorist organization with a global reach that, before 9/11, had killed more Americans than any other terrorist group. Iran, Syria, and Hizballah – Threatening Israel’s NorthMany television viewers were surprised when U.S. Senator Bob Graham declared on "Meet the Press" on July 7 that there are "more urgent" priorities facing the United States than dealing with Saddam Hussein. Read More » Why Syria is Becoming the Coalition’s SpoilerIronically, the post-September 11 international environment has not reduced Syria’s traditional support of international terrorism, but rather led Damascus to follow a dangerously escalatory policy. Read More » Israel Looks Over the Horizon: Responding to the Threats of Weapons ProliferationThe wave of Palestinian violence and terrorism that began at the end of September 2000 led to a widespread tendency to focus exclusively on Israeli-Palestinian political and security relationships. This narrow concentration of attention is potentially misleading and obscures the fundamental security threats that Israel is facing at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Read More » “Aid for Peace” — An Exhausted Paradigm?At present, there are no substantive Arab-Israeli peace negotiations underway. Israel has had to contend with the ongoing armed offensive launched by the Palestinians in late September 2000 after the failure of the Camp David summit. Read More » A New Diplomacy . . .Whether the Sharm el-Sheikh summit succeeds or not, at some point the violence in the Middle East will subside, and Israelis will ask themselves where do they go from here. Today a growing majority of Israelis, including many disillusioned members of the peace camp, are stating that PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat is not a partner for peace. They are right, but implied in this view is that Israel has no diplomatic options for the future. Read More » Syria and Terrorism[Editor's Note: After Syria's appearance at the Madrid Peace Conference, we must remind ourselves with whom Israel must deal. The U.S. needs to be reminded, too; hence, this Special Report.] Read More » |