Infighting and voter disillusionment helped One Nation’s rise in Victoria. Could it lead to an election earthquake?

Experts have cautioned there may not be the predicted orange wave in the Victorian election, despite One Nation’s surging popularity against the embattled major parties.

November’s election is less than four months away, the premier has just been ousted, and the minor party is leading the primary vote in some polls even though it does not have a leader at state level.

This is being powered by a collapse in trust in the two major parties and while this has been seen elsewhere, state issues are at play.

“In Victoria… you have an old Labor government ridden by scandals,” Josh Sunman from Flinders University told nine.com.au, referencing the corruption allegations surrounding Labor’s $10 billion Big Build project.

He said the perception Labor has failed to combat crime was dragging them down, and in any other situation their standing would lead to the opposition sweeping to power.

However, the Liberal Party is not in a position to fully capitalise.

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“The party really has been focused at times on fighting itself more than it has on holding Labor to account for some of its failings in government [rather] than putting forward an image of what a Liberal government would look like,” Sunman said.

Since the last election, the party has cycled through three leaders, finally landing on Jess Wilson.

The party has been beset by a bitter dispute involving legislative council MP Moira Deeming, who sued former leader John Pesutto for defamation after being expelled from the party in 2023.

Deeming won that case but was later disendorsed as a Liberal candidate for the upcoming election, and resigned from the party on Tuesday.

Labor replaced its leader exactly four months before the election, with Jacinta Allan resigning after losing the support of the party room.

Ben Carroll was elevated to premier last week and immediately announced a royal commission into corruption into parts of construction sector.

Sunman said the move was telling and showed how Carroll immediately looked to distance himself from his predecessors, saying in his opening press conference: “I am not Daniel Andrews, I am not Jacinta Allan”.

“I think this is a very clear political move to make a break with Jacinta Allan, who was seen as kind of front and centre, not just as premier, but as Andrews’ minister for transport, at the heart of all these construction and building issues,” Sunman said.

“I think this is an attempt to make a political break away from that kind of legacy.”

But it could take time for Carroll – who was Allan’s deputy and is a long-time MP – to distance himself from the past and the dysfunction in both major parties is leaving them vulnerable to a tide of support towards One Nation away from the cities.

Outer suburban seats are also right in play.

“If you look at where One Nation support seems to be concentrated, it’s rural areas, rural cities and also the outer suburbs, particularly Melbourne’s west,” political expert Dr Robert Hoffmann told nine.com.au.

He said outer metropolitan seats held by Labor, like Melton, will be in play, but also that former premier Allan will be looking over her shoulder in Bendigo East should she decide to recontest the electorate in November, despite holding it by a 10.8 per cent margin.

Hoffman believes the Liberal Party will have an eye on eastern suburban seats such as Pakenham, Ashwood and Box Hill, but warned Liberal and Nationals-held seats in Mildura and Shepparton will be targeted by independents or One Nation.

Sunman said Labor will feel threatened by One Nation in suburban fringe seats like Yan Yean, Sunbury and Macedon.

Polling conducted by Redbridge, seen by The Age, suggested One Nation could sweep up 30 seats across the state in a redrawing of the electoral landscape.

However, Dr Kathryn Daley from Monash University believes predictions of One Nation potentially becoming the new opposition are far from accurate.

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“I don’t have a lot of confidence in what we know about the One Nation voting trends,” she told nine.com.au, saying she would be “surprised” if the party won more than three seats.

Daley believes the lack of a party structure and resources will hamper One Nation, but also said once a leader and candidates are announced, Victorians may waver in their support of the party.

“People genuinely believe that they’re unsafe, and that… is caused by youth migrant gangs. One Nation tap into that, and fear is very persuasive,” she said, saying the party is still reliant on leader Pauline Hanson.

“[But] I think that what people are saying now and what they’re going to do on the day might be quite different.”

Sunman believes One Nation’s Victorian policies are too heavily based on its federal platform and that a best-case scenario would see One Nation finish with seat numbers “in the low double-digits”. 

However, he said the tight margin between the three parties meant anything could happen.

“The difference between, somehow against all odds, a Labor government scraping to a fourth term in minority and being completely annihilated is very thin,” he said, adding a Liberal-National government would need the support of One Nation.

Hoffman said Labor has an “easier” path to government because it is easier for them to make a deal with the Greens in the event of a hung parliament, but that Labor’s primary vote falling closer to 30 per cent could jeopardise that.

“They wouldn’t just be working with the Greens, they’d have to be looking beyond that,” he said, compared with the potential of a Coalition-One Nation alliance.

Daley is less certain of the Coalition’s hopes, saying Labor’s majority is too large, and too many of the Coalition’s gains will be wasted in seats Labor will retain.

“Labor almost certainly will win,” she said.

“Because it’s almost impossible on the numbers for them to lose.

“In any other circumstance, Labor are so wildly unpopular the Libs should be bringing this home, but they won’t.”