The tropical belt has become wider over the past decades, but climate models fall short of capturing the full rate of the expansion. The latest analysis of climate simulations suggests that a long-term swing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the main missing cause from the coupled climate models.
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Lu, J. Tropical expansion by ocean swing. Nature Geosci 7, 250–251 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2124
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2124
